As I am posting this from a mobile phone, apologies for the unpolished nature of this post. I would like to articulate some thoughts I have had about Turkey’s foreign policy to try to explain its seemingly insane decision to shoot down a Russian jet which had marginally violated its airspace for 17 seconds.
What is China's Grand Strategy?
What connects China's push to internationalize the RMB, set up new global institutions to compete with the post-WWII order set up by the United States, and China's militarization of the South China Sea? I've revisited an old discussion in the forms debating the death of the American superpower, and wondering how it might be achieving by a rising China.
I saw this commercial today while flipping through the football games. Supposedly this commercial is sponsored by CLSA (aka Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia), but good luck sighting the CLSA brand anywhere. For that matter, good luck spotting the fact that the One Belt, One Road initiative is sponsored by China. Keep in mind that CLSA's parent company is CITIC Securities (China's largest brokerage). I'm trying to figure out the angle here, but it eludes me. It fails both as a brand promotion and as propaganda to highlight some positives about China. Very strange.
The topic of America's grand strategy towards China will probably be a recurring theme on Ars Imperatoria, as the US and China continue to develop and define their relationship to each other, and their respective relationships towards the world. This development will play out over the next several decades.
With the emergence of the AIIB, a new round of doubts have arisen over America's strategy towards China, and how to maintain Pax Americana in the face of a rising China, and indeed, an emerging Pax Sinica. Deng Zhenghui, writing at the National Interest, points out the misaligned perceptions that make tensions likely to continue rising:
Here's a piece from one of my favorite public intellectuals, Robert Kaplan, writing in the National Interest. The title of the article, America is Fated to Lead, is deceptive (and perhaps sarcastic). The piece is philosophical, nuanced, introspective, and full of doubt, expressed through hypotheticals, counter-factuals, and what-ifs.
How many times in human history have confident politicians declared that a new age was upon us? Liberal Internationlism. Isolationism. The final phase of human history: Communism. Pax Americana. Japan's State-Driven Capitalism. The End of History: Liberal Democracy. The New World Order: Liberal Interventionalism. Pax Sinica. A slogan for each generation, each dying at an accelerated rate. If one is not filled with doubt about what the future holds, one should return to the coma from which one has pretended to wake.